Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.     

江苏宿迁地震台短水准测量场地改造的探讨

地震前兆数据观测中,经常会遇到各种干扰,有的干扰可以很快排除,但有的是无法排除的.目前我们的短水准受到铺路影响就属于后一种情形,它直接影响到我们测量场地的生存.为了让观测数据得以延续,我们努力寻找解决问题的办法,最后采用把观测点平移再对比观测的方法来解决问题.     

尖点突变模型在研究洪水引起环境突变中的应用

以1998年霍林河特大洪水为例，在进行洪水对环境影响作用分析的基础上，将洪水发生的危险系数、地面高程、地形坡度、降雨影响程度、土地盐碱率和草地开垦率6个控制变量划分为两个主分量。由于洪水引起的环境突变可以归纳为一种耦合突变，我们采用尖点突变模型进行求解，得出各主分量的数学表达式和水环境突变区域边界，绘制了该流域环境突变分区图，论证了应用尖点突变模型研究环境突变的合理性。     

关注全球气候变化,提高抵御气候灾害的能力

我国是个受全球季风气候影响较大的国家。受全球气候变暖的影响,云南梅里雪山的明永冰川已发生后退现象,西双版纳也已出现一些变化的前兆。为维护生态安全,云南省应统筹好人与自然和谐相处的关系,防止人为决策失误造成的区域性生态系统结构的破坏,同时要加强有关气候变化对云南影响的预警研究。     

Climate Change Policy in European Countries and its effects on industry

In this paper we discuss the effects ofdifferent climate change policies onindustrial activity and on welfare. Wecompare the effects of carbon taxes andgrandfathered permits and the effects ofexemptions for energy-intensive industries.We survey first the insights from economictheory and from model experiments for theUS. Next we use a general equilibrium modelto assess the effect of different climatechange policies on industrial activity persector and per member country in the EU. Wepay particular attention to the effects ofpolicies where one EU member state exemptsits energy-intensive sectors from abatementefforts. The main findings are that, in theEU, the effects on industrial activity andthe welfare costs of tradable permits orcarbon taxes are small when no industrialsectors are exempted. When one membercountry exempts its energy intensivesector, this will reduce somewhat theimpact on its activity level but willgenerate an extra welfare cost for theEU.     

气候政策研究中的数学模型评述

按照成本分析和综合分析2个层次，分别介绍了投入产出模型、可计算一般均衡模型、宏观计量经济模型、工程经济模型、动态能源优化模型、能源系统模拟模型、综合评估模型等不同模型方法的特点及其在气候政策分析中的应用。指出可计算一般均衡模型是应用得最为广泛的方法之一。概括了气候政策模型研究的4个发展趋势，包括加强综合评估模型的应用、扩展成本与效益的内涵、注重不同模型之间的比较、强调不确定性分析。结果中国研究现状，分析了当前面昨的问题，认为国内气候政策模型研究与中国在国际气候变化领域的地位仍不相称，强度要进一步加强研究队伍建设、扩展研究领域、跟踪国际研究前沿问题，以便为国家的气候谈判政策提供更有效的科学依据和决策支持。     

京津风沙源区防风固沙功能的时空变化及其区域差异

防风固沙功能是京津风沙源治理成效的关键监测指标。以往研究注重局地防风固沙功能的评估,对全区防风固沙功能的时空变化与内部差异揭示不足。基于京津风沙源区多期遥感数据,采用修正风蚀方程与GIS空间统计技术,评估分析了2000-2015年防风固沙功能的整体变化及其区域差异。结果表明:(1)京津风沙源区年均防风固沙量为28.98亿t,防风固沙能力为68.24 t/hm~2,且均随年份变化波动增加,年均增速分别为1.10%和0.71%;(2)京津风沙源区防风固沙能力呈西北高、东南低趋势,有49.06%的区域防风固沙能力高于70 t/hm~2,评估期内有54%的区域防风固沙能力明显提高;(3)浑善达克沙地亚区、典型草原亚区和荒漠草原亚区的防风固沙量累计为全区防风固沙总量的88%,燕山丘陵山地水源保护亚区和晋北山地丘陵亚区的防风固沙能力提升最显著;(4)锡林郭勒盟、赤峰市和乌兰察布市的防风固沙量合计占全区防风固沙量的77%,朔州市与包头市防风固沙能力较高,北京市与天津市防风固沙能力增速较高。因此,未来应重视分区施策治理与西部和北部防风固沙功能提升。     

大同市土地退化现状与动态变化研究

通过对大同市水土流失现状与动态变化、土地盐渍化和耕地数量与质量情况动态变化、土地沙漠化现状与动态变化的现状调查来分析大同市土地退化的主要成因以及采取的环境保护对策与建议.     

20世纪80年代以来挠力河流域湿地景观变化过程研究

挠力河流域面积为241.67×104hm₂。其自然条件决定了该流域具有极丰富的湿地生物多样性。从1980年以来,由于经济的快速发展,该流域湿地景观和土地利用发生了显著的变化。自然湿地资源从1982年的53.32×104hm₂变成2000年的17.17×104hm₂,减少了67.8%;而水田面积却增加了38.5倍,同时,旱田面积也大幅度增加。该文利用遥感和GIS技术,对近20年来该流域湿地景观变化过程进行时空定量分析;并结合流域土地利用/土地覆盖类型的动态变化,探讨流域在经济快速发展中土地利用与湿地之间的演化规律及其对湿地的影响机制。